Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

647.82 – 412.12

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

688 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 120.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1007.1 ±9.3

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 204.37Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 207.91Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 235.54Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 692.3 ±10.7

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 222.16Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 144Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX 45.96Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4646, 9470, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

647.8 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4646, 9470, 5940

Auto

144.4 23%

Teleop

315.1 49%

Endgame

177.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7407, 2075, 10162

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.1 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 7407, 2075, 10162

Auto

61.1 15%

Teleop

165.1 41%

Endgame

172.6 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.93 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score647.8pts

Blue projected score412.1pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 235.7
Score range: 339–721
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 900 vs event baseline 405.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1007.1Season APEX692.3

144.4Auto61.1

315.1Teleop165.1

177.5Endgame172.6

173Consistency201

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	170	54
teleop	317	92
endgame	196	66
foul	5	0
total	688	212

Result

Final score

688 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 120.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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