Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

511.63 – 276.61

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

513 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 820.2 ±8.7

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 32.55Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 218.78Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 260.3Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.9 ±9.8

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 39.55Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 155.1Rank 67Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 81.96Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2851, 7166, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

511.6 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2851, 7166, 8608

Auto

120.3 24%

Teleop

259.8 51%

Endgame

131.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8817, 4728, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.6 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 8817, 4728, 5665

Auto

55.8 20%

Teleop

145.1 52%

Endgame

77.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.92 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score511.6pts

Blue projected score276.6pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 235
Score range: 204–585
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 740 vs event baseline 406.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

820.2Season APEX543.9

120.3Auto55.8

259.8Teleop145.1

131.2Endgame77.5

185Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	36
teleop	267	130
endgame	147	61
foul	0	0
total	513	227

Result

Final score

513 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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