Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

518.57 – 390.32

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

482 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 778.2 ±9.3

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 156.91Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 78.15Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 283.51Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 741.4 ±9.5

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 34.14Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 255.21Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 100.97Rank 69Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3494, 11019, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

518.6 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3494, 11019, 9470

Auto

118.3 23%

Teleop

282.0 54%

Endgame

118.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11297, 27, 5066

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.3 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 11297, 27, 5066

Auto

106.3 28%

Teleop

198.4 52%

Endgame

77.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.5 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score518.6pts

Blue projected score390.3pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.3
Score range: 310–599
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 739 vs event baseline 444.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

778.2Season APEX741.4

118.3Auto106.3

282Teleop198.4

118Endgame77

169Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	105
teleop	248	133
endgame	120	9
foul	5	10
total	482	257

Result

Final score

482 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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