Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

476.01 – 371.7

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

389 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 90.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 755.9 ±9.3

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 202.85Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 116.05Rank 17Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 157.11Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 598.8 ±9.9

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 225.33Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 91.67Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 54.7Rank 68Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4096, 2881, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

476 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4096, 2881, 9084

Auto

90.2 19%

Teleop

282.1 59%

Endgame

107.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1189, 1511, 1648

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.7 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1189, 1511, 1648

Auto

97.1 26%

Teleop

213.6 56%

Endgame

70.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score476pts

Blue projected score371.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.3
Score range: 298–550
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 667 vs event baseline 408.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

755.9Season APEX598.8

90.2Auto97.1

282.1Teleop213.6

107.5Endgame70

142Consistency204

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	58
teleop	191	161
endgame	116	54
foul	0	5
total	389	278

Result

Final score

389 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 90.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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