Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

401.13 – 376.22

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 726.7 ±9.3

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 61.11Rank 34Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 168.2Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 171.82Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658 ±9.3

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 26.97Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 222.71Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 126.54Rank 50Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3284, 1868, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.1 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3284, 1868, 3494

Auto

77.6 20%

Teleop

167.7 43%

Endgame

142.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1646, 2767, 3604

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.2 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1646, 2767, 3604

Auto

77.4 21%

Teleop

185.3 51%

Endgame

101.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score401.1pts

Blue projected score376.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.9
Score range: 302–475
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 762 vs event baseline 409.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

726.7Season APEX658

77.6Auto77.4

167.7Teleop185.3

142.5Endgame101.8

72Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	86
teleop	199	206
endgame	116	67
foul	5	0
total	403	359

Result

Final score

403 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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