Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.46 – 147.14

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 680.7 ±9.8

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 53.27Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 146.02Rank 37Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 136.17Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695.5 ±10.7

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 17.61Rank 74Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 97.5Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 32.03Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11019, 3006, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.5 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 11019, 3006, 1501

Auto

78.8 23%

Teleop

238.3 69%

Endgame

26.8 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 3572, 9126

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 9771, 3572, 9126

Auto

84.5 60%

Teleop

42.1 30%

Endgame

13.9 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score335.5pts

Blue projected score147.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 188.3
Score range: 73–409
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 593 vs event baseline 412.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

680.7Season APEX695.5

78.8Auto84.5

238.3Teleop42.1

26.8Endgame13.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	48
teleop	177	130
endgame	80	64
foul	0	5
total	346	247

Result

Final score

346 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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