Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

403.06 – 329.51

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 57.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 868.2 ±10.5

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 204.21Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 154.72Rank 28Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 44.13Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 705.2 ±9.3

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 146.45Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 107.91Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 75.15Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1114, 1912, 6907

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.1 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1114, 1912, 6907

Auto

111.6 28%

Teleop

163.9 41%

Endgame

123.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9401, 8884, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.5 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 9401, 8884, 5829

Auto

94.1 29%

Teleop

227.3 70%

Endgame

5.3 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score403.1pts

Blue projected score329.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.6
Score range: 255–478
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 617 vs event baseline 415.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

868.2Season APEX705.2

111.6Auto94.1

163.9Teleop227.3

123.3Endgame5.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	152	62
teleop	152	136
endgame	42	73
foul	0	0
total	346	271

Result

Final score

346 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 57.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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