Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.49 – 261.95

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

595 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 198.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 769.7 ±11.1

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 47.53Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 51.49Rank 49Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 201.47Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 806.7 ±9.3

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 26.54Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 169.46Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 65.95Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11387, 167, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.5 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 11387, 167, 3045

Auto

98.2 34%

Teleop

107.6 37%

Endgame

87.2 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 2539, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

262 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1731, 2539, 2847

Auto

56.6 22%

Teleop

124.1 47%

Endgame

82.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score300.5pts

Blue projected score262pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.5
Score range: 188–374
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 960 vs event baseline 413.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

769.7Season APEX806.7

98.2Auto56.6

107.6Teleop124.1

87.2Endgame82.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	152	99
teleop	325	217
endgame	118	49
foul	0	0
total	595	365

Result

Final score

595 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 198.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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