Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

281.75 – 321.04

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

489 – 632

Prediction correct · off by 259.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 822.5 ±9.8

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 100.06Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 110.71Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 70.98Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 841.6 ±8.7

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 70.31Rank 13Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 117.69Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 133.04Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1619, 6459, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.8 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1619, 6459, 2583

Auto

90.7 35%

Teleop

112.1 43%

Endgame

55.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 103, 2960, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

321 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 103, 2960, 5468

Auto

40.6 13%

Teleop

157.5 51%

Endgame

109.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.66 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score281.8pts

Blue projected score321pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.3
Score range: 208–395
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1121 vs event baseline 409.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

822.5Season APEX841.6

90.7Auto40.6

112.1Teleop157.5

55.5Endgame109.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	78
teleop	317	356
endgame	69	198
foul	0	0
total	489	632

Result

Final score

489 – 632

Prediction correct · off by 259.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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