Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

330.35 – 539.39

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 694

Prediction correct · off by 157 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.3 ±10.5

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 118.89Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 125.38Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 86.08Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1002.4 ±8.1

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 165.86Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 183.51Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 190.02Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9427, 5665, 7525

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.3 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9427, 5665, 7525

Auto

85.5 26%

Teleop

159.6 49%

Endgame

81.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 27, 5940, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

539.4 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 27, 5940, 7407

Auto

156.1 30%

Teleop

264.4 50%

Endgame

106.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score330.3pts

Blue projected score539.4pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -209
Score range: 256–613
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 865 vs event baseline 409.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.3Season APEX1002.4

85.5Auto156.1

159.6Teleop264.4

81.8Endgame106.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	97
teleop	101	362
endgame	32	215
foul	0	20
total	171	694

Result

Final score

171 – 694

Prediction correct · off by 157 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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