Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

257.99 – 295.84

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

447 – 428

Prediction missed · off by 160.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 719.9 ±9.8

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX -1.95Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 144.44Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 115.5Rank 9Record 8-1-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 724 ±8.7

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 103.81Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 172.25Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 19.78Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 587, 4646, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

258 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 587, 4646, 2106

Auto

69.7 28%

Teleop

97.1 39%

Endgame

80.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9084, 1261, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.8 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 9084, 1261, 2851

Auto

73.2 25%

Teleop

123.2 43%

Endgame

91.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.6 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score258pts

Blue projected score295.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.8
Score range: 184–370
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 875 vs event baseline 408.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

719.9Season APEX724

69.7Auto73.2

97.1Teleop123.2

80.7Endgame91

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	88
teleop	237	244
endgame	131	96
foul	5	0
total	447	428

Result

Final score

447 – 428

Prediction missed · off by 160.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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