Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.71 – 126.31

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 86 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 900 ±9.9

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 107.18Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 140.57Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 54.96Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.9 ±10.7

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX 13.45Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 52.78Rank 40Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 60.08Rank 68Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 3476, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.7 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1241, 3476, 1511

Auto

77.8 28%

Teleop

137.4 50%

Endgame

60.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10162, 4272, 1648

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.3 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 10162, 4272, 1648

Auto

37.8 33%

Teleop

67.0 58%

Endgame

11.3 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score302.7pts

Blue projected score126.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 176.4
Score range: 52–377
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 601 vs event baseline 412.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

900Season APEX558.9

77.8Auto37.8

137.4Teleop67

60.3Endgame11.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	82
teleop	229	98
endgame	57	39
foul	5	0
total	382	219

Result

Final score

382 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 86 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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