Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

256.9 – 422.28

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

259 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.6 ±10.5

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 58.73Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 81.24Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 116.93Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 719.2 ±9.8

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 132.39Rank 50Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 126.77Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 163.12Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7525, 10015, 6907

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.9 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 7525, 10015, 6907

Auto

51.8 20%

Teleop

144.9 57%

Endgame

56.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3604, 4403, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.3 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3604, 4403, 1619

Auto

102.7 25%

Teleop

206.8 50%

Endgame

101.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score256.9pts

Blue projected score422.3pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -165.4
Score range: 177–502
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 693 vs event baseline 444.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.6Season APEX719.2

51.8Auto102.7

144.9Teleop206.8

56.5Endgame101.4

155Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	112
teleop	109	173
endgame	65	129
foul	15	20
total	259	434

Result

Final score

259 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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