Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

513.72 – 344.44

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

663 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 153.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 921.4 ±9.3

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 116.45Rank 67Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 179.17Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 218.1Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 741.4 ±8.7

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 99.73Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 195.49Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 49.22Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4728, 9470, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

513.7 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4728, 9470, 8608

Auto

95.3 19%

Teleop

304.8 59%

Endgame

112.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 131, 1189, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.4 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 131, 1189, 5010

Auto

86.1 25%

Teleop

192.5 57%

Endgame

61.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.75 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score513.7pts

Blue projected score344.4pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.3
Score range: 271–587
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1166 vs event baseline 406.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

921.4Season APEX741.4

95.3Auto86.1

304.8Teleop192.5

112.7Endgame61.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	89
teleop	365	250
endgame	191	159
foul	0	5
total	663	503

Result

Final score

663 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 153.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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