Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

410.12 – 265.24

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

594 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 176.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 815.1 ±9.3

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 74.08Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 158.24Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 177.8Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630.5 ±9.3

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 25.29Rank 69Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 60.53Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 179.42Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9032, 7166, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.1 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9032, 7166, 4096

Auto

83.3 21%

Teleop

216.2 54%

Endgame

102.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5066, 5801, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.2 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 5066, 5801, 1218

Auto

81.6 33%

Teleop

148.8 60%

Endgame

16.7 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.67 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score410.1pts

Blue projected score265.2pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.9
Score range: 193–482
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1028 vs event baseline 402.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

815.1Season APEX630.5

83.3Auto81.6

216.2Teleop148.8

102.1Endgame16.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	149	71
teleop	350	244
endgame	95	119
foul	0	0
total	594	434

Result

Final score

594 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 176.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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