Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

322.02 – 289.41

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

381 – 487

Prediction missed · off by 128.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 695.3 ±9.8

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 106.97Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 61.05Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 154Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 666.8 ±9.3

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 174.34Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 114.87Rank 50Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 0.2Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4593, 2826, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

322 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 4593, 2826, 5338

Auto

62.1 21%

Teleop

132.4 44%

Endgame

105.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10021, 3604, 8817

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.4 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10021, 3604, 8817

Auto

50.9 18%

Teleop

115.5 41%

Endgame

113.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score322pts

Blue projected score289.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.6
Score range: 218–393
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 868 vs event baseline 396.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

695.3Season APEX666.8

62.1Auto50.9

132.4Teleop115.5

105.4Endgame113.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	72
teleop	186	274
endgame	126	141
foul	0	0
total	381	487

Result

Final score

381 – 487

Prediction missed · off by 128.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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