Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.96 – 223.51

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

400 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 116.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 662.4 ±10.5

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 104.2Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 85.22Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 60.54Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 731.2 ±10.5

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 25.4Rank 45Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 140.71Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 57.4Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8884, 1619, 11387

/ 100 compat

Projected

250 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 8884, 1619, 11387

Auto

69.8 29%

Teleop

104.1 43%

Endgame

71.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9001, 9401, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.5 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9001, 9401, 7598

Auto

31.4 15%

Teleop

105.1 49%

Endgame

77.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score250pts

Blue projected score223.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.5
Score range: 152–322
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 706 vs event baseline 398.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

662.4Season APEX731.2

69.8Auto31.4

104.1Teleop105.1

71Endgame77.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	39
teleop	250	211
endgame	48	56
foul	0	0
total	400	306

Result

Final score

400 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 116.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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