Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

171.11 – 432.52

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 505.2 ±9.9

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 118.63Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 26.88Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 25.6Rank 74Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 805.6 ±9.3

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 185.55Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 152.14Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 94.83Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9084, 11297, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.1 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9084, 11297, 9771

Auto

41.4 25%

Teleop

96.5 58%

Endgame

28.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5940, 5665, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.5 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5940, 5665, 6459

Auto

90.1 21%

Teleop

210.2 48%

Endgame

137.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score171.1pts

Blue projected score432.5pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -261.4
Score range: 100–504
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 637 vs event baseline 391.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

505.2Season APEX805.6

41.4Auto90.1

96.5Teleop210.2

28.2Endgame137.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	131
teleop	103	229
endgame	50	79
foul	0	5
total	193	444

Result

Final score

193 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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