Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.11 – 383.7

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

570 – 365

Prediction missed · off by 171.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 886.4 ±8.1

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 79.1Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 76.3Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 89.71Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 708.4 ±10.7

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 156.07Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX 79.1Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 148.53Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1261, 27, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.1 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1261, 27, 2960

Auto

72.5 31%

Teleop

123.1 52%

Endgame

40.2 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7166, 10162, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.7 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 7166, 10162, 5338

Auto

82.1 21%

Teleop

206.4 54%

Endgame

93.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score245.1pts

Blue projected score383.7pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.6
Score range: 174–455
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 935 vs event baseline 391.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

886.4Season APEX708.4

72.5Auto82.1

123.1Teleop206.4

40.2Endgame93.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	141	88
teleop	306	162
endgame	103	115
foul	20	0
total	570	365

Result

Final score

570 – 365

Prediction missed · off by 171.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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