Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

336.94 – 302.47

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

319 – 383

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 659.7 ±9.3

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 156.29Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 110.69Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 69.96Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 652.4 ±10.5

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 82.12Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 132.35Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 88Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 131, 11019, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.9 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 131, 11019, 10015

Auto

69.0 22%

Teleop

133.3 42%

Endgame

118.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1511, 10021, 5801

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.5 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1511, 10021, 5801

Auto

53.1 18%

Teleop

150.4 50%

Endgame

94.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score336.9pts

Blue projected score302.5pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.5
Score range: 231–408
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 702 vs event baseline 394.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

659.7Season APEX652.4

69Auto53.1

133.3Teleop150.4

118.5Endgame94.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	74
teleop	206	204
endgame	56	105
foul	0	0
total	319	383

Result

Final score

319 – 383

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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