Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

407.89 – 169.43

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 117.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 831.3 ±10.7

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 119.68Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 129.82Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 158.39Rank 17Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 609.6 ±9.3

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 73.43Rank 69Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 78.29Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 17.71Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2137, 9126, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.9 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2137, 9126, 2881

Auto

105.4 25%

Teleop

227.9 55%

Endgame

80.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5066, 5010, 8817

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 5066, 5010, 8817

Auto

50.6 31%

Teleop

82.3 51%

Endgame

29.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.82 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score407.9pts

Blue projected score169.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 238.5
Score range: 95–482
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 409.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

831.3Season APEX609.6

105.4Auto50.6

227.9Teleop82.3

80.3Endgame29.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	62
teleop	68	67
endgame	32	0
foul	0	5
total	208	134

Result

Final score

208 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 117.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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