Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.14 – 365.43

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

416 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 700.2 ±9.3

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 137.71Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 74Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 185.43Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 835.8 ±9.3

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 108.57Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 110.86Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 146Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3494, 6907, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.1 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3494, 6907, 1189

Auto

92.6 24%

Teleop

202.9 52%

Endgame

94.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2583, 2826, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.4 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2583, 2826, 1241

Auto

72.9 20%

Teleop

198.6 55%

Endgame

91.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score397.1pts

Blue projected score365.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.7
Score range: 293–469
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 680 vs event baseline 402.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

700.2Season APEX835.8

92.6Auto72.9

202.9Teleop198.6

94.6Endgame91.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	49
teleop	235	111
endgame	69	99
foul	0	5
total	416	264

Result

Final score

416 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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