Qualification · Qualification 124

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

452.21 – 361.58

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

344 – 410

Prediction missed · off by 78.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 742 ±9.9

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 110.01Rank 28Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 145.52Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 196.68Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 683.7 ±10.5

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 129.71Rank 50Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 90.97Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 140.9Rank 45Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1912, 1501, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

452.2 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1912, 1501, 3476

Auto

123.6 28%

Teleop

254.3 58%

Endgame

60.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3604, 5801, 9001

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.6 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 3604, 5801, 9001

Auto

57.9 16%

Teleop

203.4 57%

Endgame

97.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score452.2pts

Blue projected score361.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.6
Score range: 285–529
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 754 vs event baseline 425.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

742Season APEX683.7

123.6Auto57.9

254.3Teleop203.4

60.4Endgame97.9

160Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	56
teleop	174	215
endgame	55	89
foul	5	50
total	344	410

Result

Final score

344 – 410

Prediction missed · off by 78.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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