Qualification · Qualification 123

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

377.23 – 456.45

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

468 – 289

Prediction missed · off by 129.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.4 ±8.7

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 32.67Rank 68Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 189.34Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 155.22Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 793.1 ±11.7

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 118.97Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 103.23Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 234.25Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1648, 7407, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.2 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1648, 7407, 2583

Auto

89.6 24%

Teleop

178.4 48%

Endgame

105.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9126, 11387, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.5 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9126, 11387, 8608

Auto

93.0 21%

Teleop

277.5 61%

Endgame

82.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score377.2pts

Blue projected score456.5pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.2
Score range: 300–533
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 757 vs event baseline 425.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.4Season APEX793.1

89.6Auto93

178.4Teleop277.5

105.9Endgame82

123Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	65
teleop	234	137
endgame	128	87
foul	0	0
total	468	289

Result

Final score

468 – 289

Prediction missed · off by 129.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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