Qualification · Qualification 122

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

543.08 – 427.03

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

366 – 513

Prediction missed · off by 131.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 846.2 ±9.3

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 179.63Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 142.94Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 220.51Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 846 ±8.8

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 42.44Rank 34Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 255.72Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 128.87Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1619, 9084, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

543.1 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1619, 9084, 3045

Auto

117.8 22%

Teleop

280.5 52%

Endgame

139.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3284, 27, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

427 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3284, 27, 1218

Auto

109.0 26%

Teleop

230.5 56%

Endgame

75.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.67 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score543.1pts

Blue projected score427pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.1
Score range: 350–620
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 879 vs event baseline 425.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

846.2Season APEX846

117.8Auto109

280.5Teleop230.5

139.7Endgame75.6

153Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	90
teleop	185	300
endgame	101	123
foul	0	0
total	366	513

Result

Final score

366 – 513

Prediction missed · off by 131.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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