Qualification · Qualification 121

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.79 – 367.67

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

480 – 494

Prediction missed · off by 108.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.3 ±9.3

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 220.35Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 70.44Rank 67Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 98Rank 69Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.2 ±9.3

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 49.69Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 130.43Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 187.55Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 4728, 5066

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.8 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 10021, 4728, 5066

Auto

52.6 14%

Teleop

211.9 55%

Endgame

122.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1646, 548, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.7 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1646, 548, 1261

Auto

68.2 19%

Teleop

212.1 58%

Endgame

88.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score388.8pts

Blue projected score367.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.1
Score range: 292–465
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 974 vs event baseline 424.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.3Season APEX631.2

52.6Auto68.2

211.9Teleop212.1

122.6Endgame88.1

146Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	39
teleop	255	270
endgame	100	180
foul	0	5
total	480	494

Result

Final score

480 – 494

Prediction missed · off by 108.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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