Qualification · Qualification 120

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

557.91 – 479.56

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

470 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 221.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1006.3 ±9.3

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 103.09Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 173.74Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 281.08Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 713.1 ±8.7

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 213.17Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 113.45Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 152.94Rank 40Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2847, 5468, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

557.9 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2847, 5468, 1114

Auto

117.8 21%

Teleop

280.4 51%

Endgame

152.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2767, 10015, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

479.6 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2767, 10015, 4272

Auto

85.6 18%

Teleop

275.3 59%

Endgame

104.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score557.9pts

Blue projected score479.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.3
Score range: 403–635
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 594 vs event baseline 426.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1006.3Season APEX713.1

117.8Auto85.6

280.4Teleop275.3

152.1Endgame104.1

148Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	96
teleop	252	28
endgame	91	0
foul	20	0
total	470	124

Result

Final score

470 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 221.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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