Qualification · Qualification 119

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.58 – 420.7

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 447

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.7 ±9.3

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 91.88Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 18.7Rank 74Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 41Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 751.2 ±9.3

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 121.55Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 134.06Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 165.09Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5665, 9771, 587

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 5665, 9771, 587

Auto

42.0 27%

Teleop

72.6 46%

Endgame

43.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4403, 131, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.7 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4403, 131, 2075

Auto

69.5 17%

Teleop

206.5 50%

Endgame

136.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score151.6pts

Blue projected score420.7pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -269.1
Score range: 75–498
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 626 vs event baseline 427.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.7Season APEX751.2

42Auto69.5

72.6Teleop206.5

43.2Endgame136.8

141Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	122
teleop	101	219
endgame	42	106
foul	0	0
total	179	447

Result

Final score

179 – 447

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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