Qualification · Qualification 118

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

399.83 – 643.07

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

316 – 496

Prediction correct · off by 115.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 673.5 ±8.7

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 123.97Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 107.91Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 167.95Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 898.7 ±8.7

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 231.22Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 182.28Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 229.57Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 5338, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.8 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5010, 5338, 3494

Auto

66.7 17%

Teleop

192.2 49%

Endgame

134.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5940, 9032, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

643.1 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5940, 9032, 2539

Auto

137.6 22%

Teleop

318.0 50%

Endgame

180.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score399.8pts

Blue projected score643.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -243.2
Score range: 323–720
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 812 vs event baseline 427.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

673.5Season APEX898.7

66.7Auto137.6

192.2Teleop318

134Endgame180.1

150Consistency164

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	105
teleop	112	263
endgame	117	123
foul	0	5
total	316	496

Result

Final score

316 – 496

Prediction correct · off by 115.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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