Qualification · Qualification 115

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

375.25 – 404.24

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 312

Prediction missed · off by 83.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 717 ±10.5

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 171.51Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 104.7Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 99.04Rank 17Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 672.5 ±9.3

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 99.37Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 86.55Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 218.32Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9401, 1511, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.3 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9401, 1511, 2881

Auto

83.6 22%

Teleop

224.5 59%

Endgame

70.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 9427, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.2 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1731, 9427, 7166

Auto

83.0 20%

Teleop

230.3 56%

Endgame

94.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score375.3pts

Blue projected score404.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29
Score range: 298–481
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 762 vs event baseline 426.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

717Season APEX672.5

83.6Auto83

224.5Teleop230.3

70.2Endgame94.9

111Consistency167

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	66
teleop	245	124
endgame	88	122
foul	5	0
total	450	312

Result

Final score

450 – 312

Prediction missed · off by 83.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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