Qualification · Qualification 111
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
397.66 – 376.37
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
310 – 369
Prediction missed · off by 47.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 681 ±9.8
Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 202.24Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 62.9Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 132.52Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 778.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 102.39Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 130.54Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 143.44Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7407, 1646, 4403
66
/ 100 compatProjected
397.7 pts
~1.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 7407, 1646, 4403
Auto
91.2 23%
Teleop
181.3 46%
Endgame
119.5 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2847, 1218, 131
67
/ 100 compatProjected
376.4 pts
~1.7 RP (championship)
Teams: 2847, 1218, 131
Auto
78.6 22%
Teleop
187.6 53%
Endgame
87.0 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.73
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score397.7pts
Blue projected score376.4pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample282alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 50%, blue 69%
Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 15%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 21.3
- Score range
- 299–475
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
681Season APEX778.9
91.2Auto78.6
181.3Teleop187.6
119.5Endgame87
137Consistency156
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 77 | 66 |
| teleop | 194 | 184 |
| endgame | 39 | 119 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 310 | 369 |
Result
Final score
310 – 369
Prediction missed · off by 47.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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