Qualification · Qualification 108

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

629.9 – 343.06

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

885 – 431

Prediction correct · off by 171.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1047.9 ±8.7

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 281.68Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 249.56Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 98.66Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.2 ±9.3

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 163.95Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 38.68Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 140.43Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9470, 1114, 548

/ 100 compat

Projected

629.9 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 9470, 1114, 548

Auto

150.9 24%

Teleop

313.0 50%

Endgame

162.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3494, 587, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3494, 587, 2960

Auto

89.4 26%

Teleop

178.6 53%

Endgame

70.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.92 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score629.9pts

Blue projected score343.1pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 286.8
Score range: 267–706
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1316 vs event baseline 424.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1047.9Season APEX583.2

150.9Auto89.4

313Teleop178.6

162.7Endgame70.3

163Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	189	71
teleop	485	235
endgame	211	125
foul	0	0
total	885	431

Result

Final score

885 – 431

Prediction correct · off by 171.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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