Qualification · Qualification 106

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

479.47 – 460.15

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

463 – 532

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 802.9 ±9.8

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 219.29Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 90.26Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 169.92Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 819.9 ±8.7

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 100.04Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 178.68Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 181.43Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1868, 9427, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

479.5 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1868, 9427, 6459

Auto

90.7 19%

Teleop

275.6 58%

Endgame

108.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 9032, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

460.2 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1731, 9032, 3476

Auto

86.3 19%

Teleop

273.2 60%

Endgame

94.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score479.5pts

Blue projected score460.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.3
Score range: 383–556
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 995 vs event baseline 425.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

802.9Season APEX819.9

90.7Auto86.3

275.6Teleop273.2

108.5Endgame94.4

145Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	98
teleop	308	262
endgame	51	167
foul	5	5
total	463	532

Result

Final score

463 – 532

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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