Qualification · Qualification 105

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

279.92 – 335.67

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

382 – 536

Prediction correct · off by 151.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 573.5 ±9.3

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 79.95Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 149.98Rank 40Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 49.99Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 709 ±11

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 128.99Rank 49Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 154.47Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 52.21Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5665, 4272, 11019

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.9 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 5665, 4272, 11019

Auto

73.5 27%

Teleop

159.3 57%

Endgame

44.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 167, 1619, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.7 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 167, 1619, 2826

Auto

92.1 27%

Teleop

155.9 47%

Endgame

87.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score279.9pts

Blue projected score335.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.7
Score range: 203–413
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 918 vs event baseline 425.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

573.5Season APEX709

73.5Auto92.1

159.3Teleop155.9

44.5Endgame87.1

123Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	120
teleop	233	268
endgame	95	148
foul	0	0
total	382	536

Result

Final score

382 – 536

Prediction correct · off by 151.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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