Qualification · Qualification 104
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
554.45 – 384.92
89%11%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
535 – 344
Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 935 ±10.7
Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 230.27Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 199.73Rank 13Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 124.45Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 82.2Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 111.58Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 191.14Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5940, 103, 9126
79
/ 100 compatProjected
554.5 pts
~2.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 5940, 103, 9126
Auto
78.5 15%
Teleop
308.5 57%
Endgame
152.1 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7598, 6907, 4646
68
/ 100 compatProjected
384.9 pts
~1.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 7598, 6907, 4646
Auto
75.3 20%
Teleop
187.3 49%
Endgame
117.9 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.98
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score554.5pts
Blue projected score384.9pts
Red win probability89%
Event bonus sample282alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 18%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 169.5
- Score range
- 308–631
- Upset likelihood
- 11%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
935Season APEX691.9
78.5Auto75.3
308.5Teleop187.3
152.1Endgame117.9
135Consistency193
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 78 | 79 |
| teleop | 195 | 202 |
| endgame | 232 | 63 |
| foul | 30 | 0 |
| total | 535 | 344 |
Result
Final score
535 – 344
Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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