Qualification · Qualification 103

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

567.06 – 496.26

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

526 – 472

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 885.1 ±8.7

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 225.09Rank 9Record 8-1-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 186.49Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 155.48Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 807.3 ±9.8

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 139.52Rank 37Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 171.86Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 184.88Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2106, 5468, 2137

/ 100 compat

Projected

567.1 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2106, 5468, 2137

Auto

114.3 21%

Teleop

285.1 52%

Endgame

146.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3006, 9401, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

496.3 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3006, 9401, 1189

Auto

116.7 24%

Teleop

258.7 53%

Endgame

115.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.45 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score567.1pts

Blue projected score496.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.8
Score range: 420–643
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 998 vs event baseline 424.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

885.1Season APEX807.3

114.3Auto116.7

285.1Teleop258.7

146.4Endgame115

155Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	126
teleop	276	272
endgame	109	74
foul	15	0
total	526	472

Result

Final score

526 – 472

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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