Qualification · Qualification 102

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

530.45 – 459.68

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

497 – 660

Prediction missed · off by 116.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 726.9 ±9.3

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 223.11Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 136.18Rank 50Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 171.16Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 826.5 ±8.7

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 117.98Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 156.33Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 185.37Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7166, 3604, 4593

/ 100 compat

Projected

530.5 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 7166, 3604, 4593

Auto

95.6 18%

Teleop

287.9 56%

Endgame

134.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3572, 2075, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.7 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3572, 2075, 1241

Auto

87.6 19%

Teleop

227.2 51%

Endgame

134.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score530.5pts

Blue projected score459.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.8
Score range: 384–606
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1157 vs event baseline 422.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

726.9Season APEX826.5

95.6Auto87.6

287.9Teleop227.2

134.2Endgame134.5

184Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	114
teleop	271	324
endgame	110	222
foul	0	0
total	497	660

Result

Final score

497 – 660

Prediction missed · off by 116.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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