Qualification · Qualification 101

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

372.55 – 359.39

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

445 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 647.1 ±11.1

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 51.28Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 110.46Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 210.81Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 697.5 ±8.7

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 13.19Rank 74Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 127.35Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 218.85Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7525, 1511, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.6 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 7525, 1511, 971

Auto

53.1 14%

Teleop

216.7 59%

Endgame

99.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 8884, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.4 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9771, 8884, 2539

Auto

91.7 25%

Teleop

182.6 49%

Endgame

97.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score372.6pts

Blue projected score359.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.2
Score range: 283–449
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 804 vs event baseline 423.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

647.1Season APEX697.5

53.1Auto91.7

216.7Teleop182.6

99.2Endgame97.2

107Consistency172

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	88
teleop	281	170
endgame	91	96
foul	0	5
total	445	359

Result

Final score

445 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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