Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.89 – 208.89

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 84.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 757.8 ±8.7

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX -Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX -Rank 40Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX -Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 627.8 ±9.9

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX -Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX -Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX -Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2960, 4272, 9032

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2960, 4272, 9032

Auto

62.7 30%

Teleop

104.4 50%

Endgame

41.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1501, 2851, 11387

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1501, 2851, 11387

Auto

62.7 30%

Teleop

104.4 50%

Endgame

41.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score208.9pts

Blue projected score208.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 134–284
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 417.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

757.8Season APEX627.8

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	79
teleop	171	123
endgame	27	70
foul	20	0
total	314	272

Result

Final score

314 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 84.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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