Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

421.96 – 429.33

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

508 – 380

Prediction missed · off by 67.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 654.2 ±10.5

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 83.71Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 237.74Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 100.51Rank 28Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 771.6 ±8.7

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 98.45Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 167.54Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 163.34Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9427, 971, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

422 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9427, 971, 1912

Auto

82.3 20%

Teleop

242.3 58%

Endgame

91.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 2583, 2137

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.3 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5338, 2583, 2137

Auto

89.0 21%

Teleop

196.9 47%

Endgame

131.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score422pts

Blue projected score429.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.4
Score range: 342–509
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 888 vs event baseline 444.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

654.2Season APEX771.6

82.3Auto89

242.3Teleop196.9

91.8Endgame131.1

172Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	99
teleop	274	209
endgame	144	67
foul	5	5
total	508	380

Result

Final score

508 – 380

Prediction missed · off by 67.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.