Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

682.99 – 642.83

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

527 – 689

Prediction missed · off by 101.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1095.6 ±8.8

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 260.92Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 270.74Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 151.33Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 991.5 ±8.7

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 162.65Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 198.51Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 281.67Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 1114, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

683 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 27, 1114, 4096

Auto

175.8 26%

Teleop

345.1 52%

Endgame

148.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7407, 5940, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

642.8 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7407, 5940, 9470

Auto

124.6 20%

Teleop

307.3 48%

Endgame

205.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score683pts

Blue projected score642.8pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.2
Score range: 563–763
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1216 vs event baseline 443.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1095.6Season APEX991.5

175.8Auto124.6

345.1Teleop307.3

148.5Endgame205

88Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	164
teleop	225	332
endgame	182	158
foul	0	35
total	527	689

Result

Final score

527 – 689

Prediction missed · off by 101.1 pts

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