Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

693.27 – 644.88

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

609 – 624

Prediction missed · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1095.6 ±8.8

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 273.93Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 264.24Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 155.1Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 991.5 ±8.7

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 163.24Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 199.28Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 282.36Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1114, 27, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

693.3 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1114, 27, 4096

Auto

175.8 26%

Teleop

355.6 52%

Endgame

147.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7407, 5940, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

644.9 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7407, 5940, 9470

Auto

129.0 20%

Teleop

316.2 50%

Endgame

193.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score693.3pts

Blue projected score644.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.4
Score range: 565–773
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1233 vs event baseline 442.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1095.6Season APEX991.5

175.8Auto129

355.6Teleop316.2

147.1Endgame193.1

81Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	175	91
teleop	267	236
endgame	162	297
foul	5	0
total	609	624

Result

Final score

609 – 624

Prediction missed · off by 52.6 pts

Match videos

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