Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

277.92 – 192.16

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±12.2

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 28.87Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 149.11Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 99.94Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.1 ±12.2

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 44.71Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 104.45Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 43Rank 18Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9067, 5740, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9067, 5740, 1912

Auto

41.6 16%

Teleop

164.1 62%

Endgame

60.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1466, 2393, 3201

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1466, 2393, 3201

Auto

43.2 23%

Teleop

88.4 46%

Endgame

59.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score277.9pts

Blue projected score192.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.8
Score range: 154–316
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 209.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.8Season APEX478.1

41.6Auto43.2

164.1Teleop88.4

60.6Endgame59.2

67Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	42
teleop	141	91
endgame	73	13
foul	0	10
total	238	156

Result

Final score

238 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Match videos

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