Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

370.14 – 316.7

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

369 – 379

Prediction missed · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.8 ±11.7

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 16.36Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 169.56Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 184.22Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±11.7

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 26.82Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 169.01Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 120.87Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3984, 4020, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3984, 4020, 2783

Auto

69.3 19%

Teleop

200.0 55%

Endgame

92.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1308, 2638, 3966

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1308, 2638, 3966

Auto

59.2 19%

Teleop

194.9 62%

Endgame

60.2 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score370.1pts

Blue projected score316.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.4
Score range: 280–407
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 748 vs event baseline 207.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576.8Season APEX535

69.3Auto59.2

200Teleop194.9

92.4Endgame60.2

43Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	64
teleop	204	188
endgame	107	127
foul	5	0
total	369	379

Result

Final score

369 – 379

Prediction missed · off by 31.7 pts

Match videos

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