Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.77 – 211.77

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.1 ±12.2

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 42.57Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 102.78Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 39.42Rank 18Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.8 ±12.2

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 18.07Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 82.12Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 111.58Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1466, 2393, 3201

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1466, 2393, 3201

Auto

38.3 21%

Teleop

85.4 47%

Endgame

59.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7428, 7111, 2556

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7428, 7111, 2556

Auto

41.0 20%

Teleop

108.4 52%

Endgame

57.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score184.8pts

Blue projected score211.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27
Score range: 148–249
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 207.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.1Season APEX422.8

38.3Auto41

85.4Teleop108.4

59.3Endgame57.1

13Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	34
teleop	87	108
endgame	56	52
foul	0	0
total	201	194

Result

Final score

201 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 17 pts

Match videos

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