Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

276.94 – 289.83

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

223 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483.7 ±12.2

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 113.62Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 68.34Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 94.98Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.8 ±12.8

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 110.54Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 111.33Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 67.96Rank 20Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3959, 3492, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3959, 3492, 744

Auto

42.8 16%

Teleop

156.0 58%

Endgame

70.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4504, 6517, 4107

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4504, 6517, 4107

Auto

44.9 16%

Teleop

159.9 59%

Endgame

68.4 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score276.9pts

Blue projected score289.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.9
Score range: 240–327
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 207.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483.7Season APEX454.8

42.8Auto44.9

156Teleop159.9

70.6Endgame68.4

9Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	51
teleop	103	117
endgame	78	60
foul	0	5
total	223	233

Result

Final score

223 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 pts

Match videos

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