Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.76 – 217.68

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

383 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±11.7

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 16.86Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 161.53Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 112.37Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.8 ±12.2

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 19.77Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 84.21Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 113.7Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1308, 2638, 3966

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1308, 2638, 3966

Auto

56.6 20%

Teleop

172.5 60%

Endgame

58.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7428, 7111, 2556

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7428, 7111, 2556

Auto

41.3 19%

Teleop

118.6 55%

Endgame

55.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score290.8pts

Blue projected score217.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.1
Score range: 181–328
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 566 vs event baseline 206.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535Season APEX422.8

56.6Auto41.3

172.5Teleop118.6

58.6Endgame55.5

47Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	40
teleop	255	65
endgame	62	63
foul	0	15
total	383	183

Result

Final score

383 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 pts

Match videos

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