Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.92 – 274.82

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

315 – 320

Prediction missed · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.8 ±12.8

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 109.07Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 108.32Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 65.53Rank 20Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±12.2

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 27.78Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 150.98Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 96.06Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4504, 6517, 4107

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4504, 6517, 4107

Auto

37.1 14%

Teleop

154.2 58%

Endgame

74.4 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9067, 5740, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9067, 5740, 1912

Auto

46.7 18%

Teleop

159.8 61%

Endgame

57.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score282.9pts

Blue projected score274.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.1
Score range: 238–320
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 635 vs event baseline 204.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.8Season APEX531.8

37.1Auto46.7

154.2Teleop159.8

74.4Endgame57.6

0Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	42
teleop	181	195
endgame	49	83
foul	15	0
total	315	320

Result

Final score

315 – 320

Prediction missed · off by 38.6 pts

Match videos

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