Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

374.37 – 272.37

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

249 – 268

Prediction missed · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.8 ±11.7

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 17.04Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 171.81Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 185.52Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±12.2

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 26.97Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 147.51Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 97.89Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3984, 4020, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3984, 4020, 2783

Auto

66.4 18%

Teleop

200.2 54%

Endgame

101.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9067, 5740, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9067, 5740, 1912

Auto

38.5 15%

Teleop

161.1 61%

Endgame

63.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score374.4pts

Blue projected score272.4pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102
Score range: 234–412
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 212.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576.8Season APEX531.8

66.4Auto38.5

200.2Teleop161.1

101Endgame63

53Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	73
teleop	116	130
endgame	81	65
foul	0	0
total	249	268

Result

Final score

249 – 268

Prediction missed · off by 64.9 pts

Match videos

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