Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.28 – 131.15

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.6 ±14.1

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 99.71Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 35.43Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 91.14Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.3 ±14.5

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 66.86Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 35.43Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 28.86Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 538, 4265, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 538, 4265, 2783

Auto

33.4 15%

Teleop

123.7 55%

Endgame

69.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4150, 11173, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4150, 11173, 744

Auto

24.9 19%

Teleop

74.3 57%

Endgame

32.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score226.3pts

Blue projected score131.1pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.1
Score range: 98–259
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 184.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.6Season APEX354.3

33.4Auto24.9

123.7Teleop74.3

69.1Endgame32

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	20
teleop	139	98
endgame	49	53
foul	5	35
total	243	206

Result

Final score

243 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.